1.5.25

Happy New Year! The Yankees need to make one more move, even if they don't a) think they do or b) want to. They simply have to rid themselves of Stroman's contract and/or DJ's - there's $30M tied into 2 players that simply do not have a future on this team, no disrespect intended...

Starting with the less talked about of the two, DJ LeMahieu...he is owed $15M/year for the next 2 years before finally, mercifully becoming a free agent. He was worth nearly -2 WAR last year, he basically wasn't a player on the Yankees and only, unfortunately, continued his decline from the season prior. 2022 where he was 10% better than a league average hitter feels like a lifetime ago.

It stinks because I like DJ and he represents the type of hitter that the Yankees needed for a long time and could have an immense amount of value playing the veteran, super utility position for the team. The reality though is - he is notoriously a quiet personality and you don't pay $15M/year to someone that doesn't play every or most days. He had a 51 OPS+ last year, so his value is nonexistent and the market for a 35 year old that doesn't play regularly, let alone in one position, is challenging.

I can't see the Yankees biting the bullet this year and releasing him, I think the best that we can hope for is a rebound to enough value that they could eat a bunch of his contract and dump him. It is POSSIBLE, but not sure about likely...

Stroman is the more interesting (and discussed) one of the two. He is a career above-average pitcher and every team always needs pitching. Almost all of his stats declined last year - calling out 19 home runs as being a particularly bad blemish - but he's still a veteran that will throw 120+ IP every year.

I'm not really sure why a move hasn't been made at this point, frankly. He is making $18.5M this year and, sure, the Yankees would have to eat some of that - they wouldn't have to eat all of it. Per how averages work, half of the league has a below average pitching staff and could likely benefit in some way shape or form from a back of the end starter that has proven that he can get it done at the MLB level.

Orioles? Blue Jays? Giants, so we don't have to face him in the AL East? Or maybe we want to after all?

One more move, I'm begging for one more move being a trade of one of these guys so we can add another INF and a lefty in the bullpen.

Let's see what happens!

40 Man Roster Review - Clayton Beeter (SP)

Beeter appeared in 3 games last year, so while he has started accumulating service time, he is still a rookie going into the 2025 season. As such, he also still maintains 2 options, so I expect he will come up and down in 2025 as the occasional relief help when the Yankees are in a pinch, or just trying to give a a better arm a bit of an extra rest.

In 3.2 innings at the MLB level this year, Beeter had 5 strikeouts (nice) and 2 ER (less nice) and 2025 should be an opportunity for him to get a bit more work in. Brighter side is a 2.25 ERA (very nice) across  36 IP at the AAA Scranton level last year.

Beeter is a 2 pitch guy - fastball, slider - with the slider grading out a bit better using Stuff+. Here's a nice strikeout of our old friend IKF on one from this year's sample of innings:

I don't think there's going to be too much to say about Beeter until we get into Spring Training and we can see how he does and how the Yankees are thinking about him in 2025. He is a top 20 Yankees prospect at this stage though, for all that that's worth!

Floor: gets more MLB exposure and the cracks start to show in his pitch mix, gets shipped off to another team while he still preserves some value.

Ceiling: gets a bit more work than last year (20 games, over under) and is a functioning, contributing member of the Yankees bullpen down the stretch.

40 Man Roster Review - Yoendrys Gómez (SP)

Still technically a rookie, Gómez pitched 11.1 innings for the Yankees in 2024. All of these were incredibly low leverage, but he wrapped those with a < 4.00 ERA (3.97). 5 of his appearances were clean including 4.2 clean on June 21 against Atlanta. In AAA, he had 93 strikeouts across 83.1 IP and a 3.67 ERA. I like that as something that could be tapped into this year...

Yoendrys Gómez throws primarily a 2 pitch mix of slider and overall grades out as with average stuff, with the slider being the ++ pitch in his arsenal according to Stuff+. On the flip side, the slider grades out as negative run value. Alas. Candidly, there is not much MLB level footage of this anyway, I was trying to scour.

Here's a nice called strike on the corner with the SL:

Floor: regresses and gets stuck in AAA or shipped off to another team.

Ceiling: same season as last year, slight uptick in appearances, 5-10 total for the season, I don't see him becoming a mainstay in the bullpen this year, not much upside until we see more.

40 Man Roster Review - Scott Effross (RP)

Scott Effross has pitched in 16 games for the New York Yankees. In 3 seasons. What do I even know about this man at this point?

He's at a 2.81 ERA across those games, but is that really a sample size worth celebrating? He's 30 years old, but under team control for forever, so I guess it's worth discussing?

Another sinker, slider guy. He's got good stuff, don't get me wrong, he's just one of those 'ghost' Yankees at this point. Reminds me of, what's that guys name? Ben Rortvedt. Quick number crunch and Ben actually played in 2x the number of games as Scott here. Another 'ghost' Yankee.

Anyway, Effross pitched in 3.1 innings for the Yankees in 2024 and gave up this 2-run homer to Jordan Walker, which kinda soiled any chance at this being a positive data look. That said, this pitch HUNG:

Not too much to really say here, he could have a solid season and be a contributor, but he could also get hurt again and fall back off the radar. I know I haven't said a single positive word so far, but I do think I actually like his stuff to be a mid-leverage arm. Looking at his career splits, he's a bit of a lefty neutralizer, so maybe that's the angle here as well.

Floor: hurt and/or off the Yankees, stuck hurt and lingering in AAAA

Ceiling: solid mid-to-high leverage contributor for the Yankees.

40 Man Roster Review - Yerry De Los Santos (RP)

I'm going to attempt to do some type of review for all the current players on the Yankees 40 Man Roster. I'm sure that some of these will be almost immediately out of date, but just a 'fun' offseason task.

We're going to start with those players currently in the minors and work our way up to Judge, Cole, etc.

Acknowledging that, with some of these, this might be the first time that I'm really looking at these players critically so part of this will just be even remotely familiarizing myself with their careers to-date. I'll also try to do a floor/ceiling review for each of them for the 2025 season.

We'll start with Yerry De Los Santos...

Yerry was added to the 40M on 11/4. He spent all of 2024 in AAA after being signed as a free agent last year. Across 59 IP last year, he had an ERA over 4 with 8.39 K/9 (up slightly over his career baseline).

95mph Sinker, slider, change mix.

There does seem to be some solid spin on his off-speed pitches:

Fangraphs has his slider as his ++ pitch with 104 Stf+, but across the board, we're talking about fairly average to below-average arsenal, with fairly limited upside. He uses that slider about 20% of the time, here's an example:

Hard to really gauge expected impact from someone with 0 innings at the major league level in 2024, but this feels like a classic situation where he'll be a AAAA kinda call up or he'll be shipped off to a team that needs arms.

Floor: Remains buried in AAA or traded to a team that needs arms at the major league level.

Ceiling: Low leverage arm in the Yankees 2024 bullpen if other pieces are traded away, he still has options  to play with. The Yankees pitching staff could unlock something here, but my expectations are low.

12.23.24

Offseason update and thoughts...

We need one more move to be made, but it's been a busy week or two.

Max Fried feels like it could be Rodon 2.0 - paying ace money for someone who is just an inning eater. Rodon had 175 innings last year at nearly a 4.00 ERA. His contract looks cheap now only a few years later, but how many inning eaters does one staff need.

Over under for Fried 2025 ERA - 3.50. I'll take the under, but barely.

Devin Williams - good pick up. I like him as the closer and Weaver as the set up man. I guess they'll need to make a decision post-2025 on who gets the role, or they can just bring them both back? I think I like Williams the most of the 4 deals, but a back injury scares me.

Over under for Williams saves - 27.5. I think he gets hurt again (sadly). I'll take the under.

Cody Bellinger.....could be the best move or the worst move. Hard to tell at this stage. It's not my money, but the contract is definitely tough. I like the move overall though. I like him the most in LF and let Jasson play CF.

Over under for Cody OPS - a nice clean .800. I'll be over the moon if the over hits. I'll choose to be optimistic here and hammer the over.

Paul Goldschmidt - again, not my money. I think it's a good 'buy low' contract, but I'm a bit skeptical. Truly, anything is an upgrade at 1B after last year, but this is one that I don't see going well. Remember Jay Bruce? If we get solid defense with the threat of pop, I'm mostly happy.

Over under for Goldy HRs - 20. I will sadly take the under.